Macquarie Revises U.S. Prediction Market Taker Volume Outlook to $187 Billion for 2026

Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon released an updated forecast for U.S. prediction market taker volume that places full-year 2026 totals at $187 billion, and this figure reflects an 8.5 times increase from the $22 billion recorded in 2025. The projection sits slightly below an earlier $190 billion estimate yet exceeds a prior $169 billion outlook, while the growth trajectory remains tied directly to sports contracts that coincide with the opening of the NFL and college football seasons. September industry volume reached a record $20.1 billion, which marks a 1,079 percent year-over-year rise, and operators DraftKings and FanDuel continue to expand their share within the category.

Forecast Details and Year-over-Year Growth Metrics

The revised 2026 estimate from Macquarie incorporates data through recent months and highlights how sports-related contracts drive the majority of the projected expansion. Taker volume represents the total amount wagered by retail and recreational participants, and the jump from $22 billion in 2025 to $187 billion in 2026 stems primarily from increased activity during peak sports periods. The September 2026 figure of $20.1 billion establishes a new monthly high and demonstrates the scale of participation that has emerged since the same period one year earlier.

Analysts at the firm compared multiple scenarios before settling on the $187 billion target, and they noted that the start of major football schedules provides the clearest catalyst for continued momentum. DraftKings and FanDuel have captured additional market share during this period, which aligns with the overall volume acceleration observed across the prediction market sector.

September Volume Record and Seasonal Drivers

Industry participants recorded $20.1 billion in taker volume during September 2026, and that total surpasses the previous September by more than ten times. The surge coincides with the launch of NFL and college football campaigns, both of which generate substantial contract activity within prediction markets. Observers tracking these markets report that sports contracts account for the dominant share of the increase, while non-sports categories have grown at a comparatively modest pace.

The year-over-year comparison reveals that September 2025 volume stood far below current levels, and the 1,079 percent expansion underscores how rapidly the market has scaled. Macquarie's analysis attributes this acceleration to the timing of football season openings, which historically produce elevated engagement among retail traders. DraftKings and FanDuel have each strengthened their positions, and their combined gains contribute to the broader industry totals now reflected in the updated forecast.

Market Share Shifts Among Leading Operators

DraftKings and FanDuel have increased their share of prediction market taker volume throughout 2026, and this development occurs alongside the overall rise in sports contract activity. The two platforms benefit from established user bases and expanded offerings that align with the seasonal demand created by professional and collegiate football. Macquarie's update incorporates these share gains when projecting the $187 billion full-year figure, and the analyst team adjusted earlier estimates downward only modestly after reviewing the most recent trading patterns.

The $187 billion target for 2026 remains well above the $169 billion outlook issued previously, which indicates that underlying growth assumptions have held steady despite minor recalibrations. Data from the firm shows that sports contracts continue to outpace other categories, and the September record provides concrete evidence of this trend extending into the final months of the year.

Conclusion

The Macquarie forecast update supplies a clear benchmark for U.S. prediction market taker volume through the end of 2026, and the $187 billion projection rests on documented September results plus seasonal sports drivers. September's $20.1 billion record, the 1,079 percent year-over-year increase, and the documented share gains by DraftKings and FanDuel form the factual foundation for the revised outlook. Those who follow these markets can reference the full analysis through the Updated 2026 Prediction Market Taker Volume Forecast and related coverage at casino.org for additional context on the reported figures.